Will it ever rain? Also what does the long range look like?
This week I decided to take a short break from conweather. The weather was great so I decided it was theperfect time to take a much-needed vacation.
I'm back and not much has changed. It still looks like the next 2 weeks or so are going to be dry and warm.
The euro and canadian both want to bring some rain to us about a week from now but I find it rather unlikely. They both develop some time of extra tropical storm with some wind with it but it isn't until a week from now. It's possible and it needs to be watched but I'm not too concerned.
Instead of wondering about storms and pattern changes that probably won't happen I am spending most of my time looking at the long range. Below is a picture of the current sea surface temperature anomalies and the change in sea surface temperatures in the past 7 days.
As you can see from the top picture the waters in the el nino region are very warm. But when you look at the bottom picture they aren't really warming much. Right now there are a few spots that the waters are warming and in a few spot the waters are cooling. This means that the el nino is stabilizing and isn't going to strengthen much more.
The models are currently predicting that the el nino stays like this for a few more months before dropping off.
This specific model doesn't plummet the el nino until January but some models start the weakening as early as Halloween. By February most models are predicting a significantly weakened el nino. This is good news for snow lovers as we usually get most of our snow in February.
The latest Japanese model came out yesterday. There has been a bit of a shift in its winter prediction.
The latest Japanese has gone from slightly below average temperatures to slightly above average. A change like this is very small so that isn't really much of a concern right now. The latest Japansese also brings a lot of precipitation in to the eastern United States.
If this prediction comes true we would have an average temperature winter with a few cold shots and quite a bit of snow.
That's about it for today. My preliminary winter forecast is up on the seasonal forecast page. A second preliminary winter forecast will go out on October 11th. Also be sure to check me out on twitter!