Yesterday thunderstorms trained over some areas in New Jersey causing as much as 4-8 inches of rain to fall. The reason for all these thunderstorms is the very moist and very volatile air mass that is currently over the area. This will cause thunderstorms to form this afternoon.
Just like yesterday these thunderstorms could train over certain areas so beware of flash flooding.
By around midnight tonight a cold front will start to move through the area. Combined with the very moist air the cold front will pack a punch with heavy thunderstorms along it. By the Friday morning commute the rain and thunderstorms will probably be moving through NYC. Tomorrow's commute could be a bit messy as I expect some roads to flash flood.
So how much rain am I expecting? Well the best chance for the really heavy rain will be in western New Jersey. I expect the least amount of rain as you move farther east like on Long Island. From now until Friday night I think that everyone except for Suffolk County will get at least an inch of rain. In the city I expect 1 maybe 2 inches. In eastern New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley, I expect 1-3 inches. I think that western New Jersey will really get a lot of rain with 1-4+ inches of rain.
After what happened yesterday with the flash flooding I am quite surprised that NWS hasn't issued a flash flood watch. Thunderstorms have already fired up in western New Jersey and I expect more to fire up and move east as the afternoon continues.
Remember if you encounter flood waters while driving, turn around don't drown!
Today tropical storm Danny became the first hurricane of the 2015 season! The models have really backed off on Danny. There are two reasons for this. One, dry air off Africa is keeping it from strengthening too much, and two, there is high wind shear in the Caribbean. I talked about yesterday that if Danny could get past the dry air and wind shear he could probably strengthen near the Bahamas. But that scenario is looking increasingly unlikely.
I really like the latest cone out of the National Hurricane Center. I definitely think that Danny will be be tropical storm by the time it reaches Puerto Rico.
While yes there is definetly a potential that Danny could affect the US it is still way too early to predict that.
There are two other areas of interest in the Atlantic. One is off the coast of Africa and will likely take a similar track to Danny. The other is near Bermuda. Now the NHC is giving this one a 60% chance of development. This is the one that could make next week a bit interesting.
Since the system isn't even a depression yet and probably won't form for another 3-5 days it is very difficult to determine a track for the system. Nevertheless, I will need to watch that Sunday Wednesday time frame very carefully. The models are not in agreement at all on this storm and are a little all over the place. All I can say now is that there is a potential for some kind of tropical weather event during the Sunday Wednesday timeframe.
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