Erika is looking very interesting, is she on here way to the east coast?
Today at the 5 PM advisory Erika weakened a little bit. The reason for this is the dry air that has sucked most convection out from the eastern side of Erika. She may not look healthy now but she has been doing this kind of weakening then strengthening, then weakening again trend all day. I expect this trend to persist until this weekend when Erika could start going.
Above is my latest cone for Erika. Anywhere that is shaded in red has the potential to get hit by Erika. The blue line in the center of the cone is the track that I expect Erika. The areas that are close to that central blue line have the highest potential of Erika making a visit to them.
As you can see right now I have most of Florida inside of the cone. If you live in Florida I think that you need to watch out. Its still 5-6 days out but Erika will likely be hurricane by the time it comes by you possibly a strong hurricane. Right now there is no need to start preparing or evacuating or anything like that. Here is the threat level forecast.
If you live in the aware area make sure to check the forecast daily for more developments. No need to be concerned. If you live in the alert area be sure to check the forecast at least daily and start thinking about a 2nd if you are doing some kind of outdoor outing on Sunday-Tuesday. Like I said above there is no need yet to start preparing for evacuations or stocking up on food.
The models still have a lot of uncertainty right now. This morning the European model, which is usually the best performing model, showed something rather scary. If you didn't see it on twitter, he Euro was predicting Erika to stall out over the Bahamas and then strengthen to a cat 4 hurricane on its path the the southeast. This afternoon the Euro showed quite the opposite with Erika hardly developing at all.
The GFS and the Euro have both been very consistently showing no development with Erika. I think that this morning the Euro just got confused with something. The models that are developing Erika are the hurricane models. Usually since they are specifically specialized for hurricanes, these are the models that are most important. I still think that the hurricane models are handling Erika better but the GFS and Euro have been very consistent.
In the end I think that the hurricane models will win simply because they have a better track record and I am fairly sure that Erica can survive the next couple of days. Here are the current hurricane model predictions.
Most of the models are in pretty good agreement except for a few models that take Erika into the Gulf. I really don't see this happening and a track to the east of Florida is much more likely.
As for us in the northeast Erika looks a bit different then most storms. For people like me who love hurricanes it can be frustrating living in an area that rarely gets tropical cyclones. The reason that the northeast coast is in the aware stage is because of a strong high pressure ridge to the north of us. When high pressure forms around Canada that usually steers storms into the coast and not out to sea.
The problem is that there is very strong shear along the coast so if Erika does hug the coast there could be some impacts in the south but she should be quite weak by the time she arrives in the northeast.
As for the local weather up until the middle of September things look very quiet with some warmer than average temperatures.
Unless Erika pays us a visit...
Be sure to check out my twitter and follow! I will try to do more morning updates but if you haven't noticed yet I am not a morning person.