Its officially a heat wave in NYC. Will the heat continue or is a cool down on the way.
After three days in the low 90's it is officially a heat wave in NYC. Things will be hot again tomorrow and will be very hot on Thursday when you combine the humidity. Heat indices could reach 100 in some spots so be use to drink plenty of water! There is also a potential for some thunderstorms during the late afternoon and overnight.
Friday and Saturday will be absolutely perfect and then things should heat up a bit more for Labor Day. Right now the models are predicting that this heat should stick around for at least the next 10 days. Except for the GFS model which is currently showing two major cool downs, with the first one happening about a week from now.
Its possible but there isn't any consensus yet so I will leave it as a question mark. It still looks like the next two weeks will be dry as a bone, and there is no arguing that.
Something interesting that I am watching is typhoon/hurricane Kilo in the Pacific. The reason that I said typhoon/hurricane is because its both! Half of Kilo is in the central Pacific where they call cyclones hurricanes, and the other half is in the western Pacific where they call cyclones typhoons. Not only that but on the west half of Kilo its September 2nd and on the right half its September 1st! Crazy stuff.
While that little note is definitely interesting, its not why I'm talking about Kilo. Whenever there is a powerful cyclone in the Pacific that is always something to watch out for. This is because when some type of low pressure moves through the western Pacific it can often mess with the jet stream sending record cold air into Canada and the United States. A perfect example of this was last years Typhoon Nuri. It missed Japan and then turned into a massive cyclone in the Bering Sea. This sent a pocket of the Polar Vortex into the United States resulting in one of the coldest Novembers on record. Half of the nation had a white Thanksgiving which is just crazy.
Some of the models are turning Kilo into an absolute monster. Rivaling some of the worst cyclones on record in intensity. If Kilo misses Japan and makes it to Alaska we could be in for a huge pattern change in about 10-15 days or so. Its just an idea, not a forecast but it is definitely something to look out for.
I'm kind of hoping for a pattern change soon. Right now only Suffolk county and a tiny bit of Fairfield is in a drought but I am surprised that more counties aren't in a drought.
This upcoming September looks REALLY dry. I wouldn't be surprised that by end of the month Suffolk county goes into a Severe drought. Right now I think with the strengthening el nino that the pattern should change by mid October but the el nino isn't going to strengthen that much more, so its still very unclear. The only thing that could give us some much needed rain right now, is some type of tropical storm or nor'easter.
My preliminary winter forecast comes out this weekend so stay tuned! Also be sure to check out my twitter and follow!