Day by day we get closer to winter...
Today was yet another gorgeous warm day. On Tuesday things will really heat up with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees. There is a good likelihood this will turn into heatwave since it looks like NYC will hit 90 degrees Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
Things get a bit more interesting on Friday as a cold front will approach. Thing's won't cool down instantly but they should by Monday. This weekend could turn out wet which is great news for the drought. In fact the GFS model is predicting as much as 1-3 inches of rain falling from Friday through Sunday.
But like I said things aren't going to get instantly cold next week. This first cold front will be more if an average front just cooling temperatures to around average. But this will just be the first of many potential cold fronts. Weather patterns don't change overnight they usually take a couple weeks to switch. Therefore, I think that starting this weekend we will have a gradual cool down throughout the rest of the month.
Now I am still very skeptical about this cool down. At the end of July it looked like August would be very cool. August ended up being rather warm. Luckily if we the pattern does change then it looks like we will switch to wetter pattern which should take us out of this drought and hopefully, bump up the water departures.
Don't think that because we may have a chilly September means that the Winter will be cold. There is lots of time for another pattern change and there probably will be multiple other ones before winter starts.
Tropical Storm Grace formed today! She is currently located to the south and west of the Cape Verde Islands. Because of how far south she is I really don't expect her to get anywhere. She could strengthen to hurricane status, but that doesn't really matter as she is in the middle of the ocean. Here is the cone.
As you can see Grace will continue to strengthen tomorrow and the next day, but once she gets to highers hear and dry air she will start to weaken. Even if Grace does survive the unfavorable conditions, she will take a track similar to Erika and dissipate in the Caribbean. There is a chance she stays to the north of the Islands and can re strengthen, but after what we saw with Danny and Erika it looks unlikely.
Despite a difficult journey there is a chance that Grace will survive. It unlikely but possible.
Be sure to check out my twitter and stay tuned for my preliminary winter outlook which goes out tomorrow!