Much needed rain is finally on the way!
Today was just ridiculously hot for after Labor Day. It got to 96 at my location. Central Park got up to 97 and Newark NJ hit 98. I'm sure somebody hit 100 but I am yet to find that location. Maybe in July this heat would be normal but in September this is just unreal.
Tomorrow things will cool off a bit. It will be a very close call to make this an official heat wave in NYC. The high temperature will be around 90 so we will just have to wait and see. Below is a look at your five day.
As you can see some areas could get a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow. Thursday into Friday we will get some much needed beneficial rainfall. Thursday morning will be cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms around. Thunderstorms should get more widespread as we head into the afternoon. By nightfall there should just be a steady rain. There will some leftover showers Friday morning but things should dry out by the afternoon.
Here are the rainfall totals :
NYC, Westchester and Fairfield counties - 1-1.5 inches of rain.
New Jersey - 1.25-2 inches of rain.
Rockland, Orange and Putnam counties - 1-2 inches of rain.
Long Island - 0.6-1 inch of rain.
Localized amounts in New Jersey could exceed 2 inches which may lead to flash flooding. Right now it doesn't look like a big concern but it is something to look out for.
Another coastal storm could affect us this Sunday into Monday. Right now it looks a little far out so there isn't much I can say about it.
As for the cool down it still looks like that starting this weekend things will continue to get gradually colder and more below average. It looks like a rather strong cold shot will move through later this month.
This could set us up for a rather chilly October or at least a chilly start to October. I know said in my Fall forecast I thought this would be a warm October but the el nino doesn't appear to be having that much of an effect on the weather. Could that be a sign for winter? Maybe but I stand by my forecast for now. If I must I may do a winter forecast update in October.
The tropics are pretty quiet right now. Grace is diminishing and may not even survive tomorrow. The shear and dry air is even stronger than it was with Danny and Erika and that led to Graces downfall. The NHC currently Has an area of interest near Bermuda but it doesn't appear to have any effect on us.
I have seen a lot of buzz on how a cat 2 hurricane is going to form in the Gulf. I already said this on twitter, but I will say it again. Just because one model is predicting a hurricane to form doesn't mean it will defy the laws of physics to do so. The shear in the Gulf is very strong and any development is very unlikely.
That being said, anything can happen so I will be monitoring, but I am very doubtful of a hurricane in the Gulf.
Be sure to check out my winter forecast and follow me on twitter!