With Joaquin out of the picture what's next?
Hurricane Joaquin is now definitely going out to sea. It poses a threat to Bermuda but not us. What went wrong was the speed of Joaquin. If it had moved faster it would have been picked up by the trough and thrown into the Mid-Atlantic. This would have resulted in a catastrophe beyond imagination but thankfully this will not happen.
My thoughts go out to the Bahamas as Joaquin has hit them hard. I just hope that everything isn't as bad as it is feared.
The sharp pressure gradient has resulted in some major coastal flooding and beach erosion. Along the Jersey shore some areas are measuring high tides close to Sandy levels. We are past the worst of the high tides but moderate coastal flooding is still likely through tomorrow afternoon.
So what's next? In the near future I don't really see any significant storm threats. Beyond 7 days we could see some cold fronts but that looks like it. Here is the five day.
As we head into winter the Pacific will become more in play but right now I am looking more at the Atlantic. The waters off the east coast right now are very warm. These are the areas that nor'easters strengthen and this will help nor'easters get stronger. There is also some warm waters in the areas that develop tropical cyclones and this could help tropical cyclones form and potentially threaten the East Coast. I do think we have a threat of a tropical cyclone through the end of the month. But right now I am more concerned about nor'easters as that threat will continue through March.
What fuels nor'easter is the combination of warm ocean waters and cold air to the north. We are currently in abundance of both of those. The nor'easter that is moving out right now has caused the dunes in many beach locations to collapse. I think that this nor'easter season could be like no other with multiple major ones. Now this doesn't mean that we are going to get lots and lots of snow but it does mean we could be in for a very windy and damaging fall/winter.
I could be wrong but beaches have not gotten much better since Sandy. Beaches should be building up there dunes as if a hurricane is going to hit. Therefore, the dunes won't have to be rebuilt every time a coastal storm hits. Here are some of my thoughts on October and November.
Thats it for today! Be sure to follow my twitter.
My original forecast for Fall was that we would have a warm and dry September and then we would see a pattern change as we headed into November. That pattern change from warm and dry to colder and stormy is occurring right now. Here is a look at the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic.