Rain is on the way! Also what happening for Halloween and the long range?
The weather will be nice tomorrow and Tuesday but things will go downhill Wednesday.
Some of the moisture associated from hurricane Patricia will reach us Wednesday. Rain will move in during the morning and could become heavy in the afternoon and evening. There will be some showers left over Thursday and Friday. Here are the rain totals.
As for Halloween the weather should hold up despite some cold. There will be a very slight chance of some drizzle or even a flurry in northern areas. Here's the forecast.
As we head into November the weather should finally get interesting. Not only will it be colder but there is an increased storm chance.
Its very far out but I am already monitoring the November 3rd through November 4th time frame. The models are currently indicating that a storm system with lots of moisture will be moving off of North Carolina. There will also be a second piece of energy moving southeast from Canada. This is a classic setup for a big nor'easter. While the models aren't showing anything major yet, I will be monitoring.
When I checked the 7 day change in sea surface temperatures I was rather surprised. Below are some of the interesting things.
Dark Red Circle - This is the El Niño region. As you can see most of the region is cooling particularly the waters off the Peru and Ecuadorian coast. I didn't expect this type of cooling for at least a few more weeks and this is a great sign for snow lovers across the United States.
Red Circle - Recent warming of waters around Greenland could allow for a negative NAO to form. Negative NAO's typically bring cold air and storms to the eastern United States and warmth and drought for the western United States.
Orange Circle - The blob is warming. This area of warm waters has allowed for a massive ridge to form over western North America and a trough over eastern North America. If the blob continues to warm there is a pretty good chance of another cold and snowy winter.
Pink Circle - This area of very warm waters is now cooling rapidly. I was worried that the warm waters could create a suppressed ridge over California preventing storms from tracking there. Luckily the waters are now cooling which is a great sign for California.
Yellow Circle - What was once near record warm waters off the eastern seaboard is now cooling. Warm waters help storm development specifically nor'easters. If these waters continue to cool the threat of massive east coast storms decreases.
Green Circle - The waters near Japan are warming. This could signal less storms making it to North America. See the typhoon rule on the commonly used terms page for more details.
Purple Circle - Waters are cooling in the Indian Ocean. This could signal for a colder winter but it isn't really an important ingredient in my opinion.
Thats it for tonight! You can see my winter outlook on the seasonal prediction page. Also be sure to check out my twitter and follow!