Severe weather outbreak tomorrow, and future Colin eyes Florida.
Tomorrow continues to look like a dangerous severe weather day. Models continue to show widespread severe thunderstorms over a large area. In the blue, some of these thunderstorms will bring damaging winds and large hail, with even a few tornadoes likely. In the red, most of the thunderstorms won't be severe, but there will be some. In the orange the main threat will be heavy rain and lightning as little to no storms will likely go severe.
The thunderstorms will be worst from 5-10 PM. After 10 PM the storms will start to weaken and turn into thundershowers.
There's no need to freak out about this severe outbreak as its nothing we haven't seen before. I'll have my final updated map out by late tomorrow morning.
Invest 93L continues to try to organize itself east of the Yucatan Peninsula. We're starting to see where the center of rotation which didn't really exist yesterday. There is a possibility that 93L could reform its center to the NE of where it currently is, which would change the forecast and possibly cause a more intense storm. Right now I'm not forecasting that to happen, but its still a possibility.
I expect Invest 93L to become tropical depression three by Sunday evening just north of the Yucatan. By Monday afternoon we should have tropical storm Colin. Colin should make landfall near the Big Bend of Florida (where the peninsula meets the panhandle). Then Colin will head out to sea and either weaken into a tropical depression, or possibly strengthen as an extratropical system.
I'm going to wait until we have a tropical depression until I go into specific intensities, but just for fun, here's a look at the spaghetti models intensity forecast. Most models strengthen 93L into a weak to moderate tropical storm with winds between 40-60 miles per hour at its peak.
While wind and surge will be an issue in Florida, they won't be the most damaging impact if Colin makes landfall. Flooding from rainfall will be a big issue where Colin makes landfall with 5-8+ inches in some areas. There will also be a tornado risk. Similar storms like Andrea in 2013 caused multiple tornadoes southeast of where the storm made landfall.
I'll be hear tomorrow morning with some updated maps and a short post. In the meantime, be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!