Tropical Storm Danielle should weaken as she continues to move onto land. Danielle will go down as the earliest named "D" storm on record.
The earliest named "E" storm on record was major hurricane Emily, which developed on July 11th 2005. It should be interesting to see if we could break yet another record.
Tropical activity looks pretty quiet over the next five days, as the NWS doesn't currently have any areas of interest. However, as we head into July, things could start to get interesting.
Below I have a map of some areas that may have tropical development or intensification in the near future. The orange area is really just the broad area of where we typically see tropical activity in June, July and August. The red areas are the ones that may need to be monitored for the next couple months of the season.
I have the Bahamas marked for a few reasons. Firstly, the Bahamas are often an area of development all season, and really would be marked no matter what. The main reason is because the water around the Bahamas is very warm and great for intensification of tropical cyclones. This year waters are especially warm, ranging from 0.5 to 3.5 degrees Celsius above average. Also, the Bahamas don't have any high mountaintops or hills like Hispaniola, which hurt tropical systems.
I decided not to include most of the MDR in the graphic. The air coming off of Africa is quite dry, and shear looks to remain high in the coming weeks. However, as tropical waves move west and approach the Lesser Antilles conditions should improve, and that's why I've marked it red. However, similar to the Bahamas, this area is often active and would probably be marked every year too.
The last red area I marked was the western Caribbean Sea, the Yucatan Channel and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Waters in this area are warm, and shear should decrease in the coming weeks. It should be noted that the GFS continues to develop a tropical system developing in this area around July 4th. While this time is very far out, the model has been surprisingly consistent. Another less scientific reason I marked this area, was because of the law of averages. Florida hasn't been struck by a hurricane in 10 years, which is extremely unusual. This trend has to stop at some point so I'd guess Florida has the highest risk of being struck this season.
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