With the new model runs many forecasters have lowered snow totals. The reason for this is that the American weather model and the North American weather model both are predicting a farther north track causing warm air to filter in. This would drop snow totals but would increase the potential, for a crippling ice storm in central and northern New Jersey. Here are two reasons I am not buying into this scenario.
1. Majority rules
The European, Canadian, Japanese and the navy weather models all predict a colder scenario.
2. Track records
Although the American model forecasted the last storm surprisingly well it has a bad track record. So far this winter the American model has taken much longer to catch onto storms and even right before the storm hit it usually had a bad forecast. The North American model has forecasted badly this whole winter and did a horrible job on the last storm. Just 3 hours before the storm was expected to "hit" New York City it had forecasted 40 inches! The European model is by far the best model and although it did a bad job on the last storm, so far this winter it has been doing a very accurate job.
My forecast could easily change. The new model runs come out between 11 PM tonight to 2 AM tomorrow. For storms this is in fact the most crucial model run. If I see the European model change to what the American and North American models are predicting I will adjust my forecast early tomorrow morning. However, if the American and North American change I will keep my snow forecast. This is an evolving situation so stay tuned for more updates.